Monday, August 20, 2012

On bailouts

GM is once again headed for bankruptcy. http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/08/15/general-motors-is-headed-for-bankruptcy-again/4/
And some start arguing that it is the evidence that bailouts haven't worked. But I would say, "haven't they though?" Bryan Caplan, a conservative economist at any aspect, made a very good point on bailouts four years ago.
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/09/how_would_we_kn.html
Caplan, of course, does not defend bailouts here. He actually has been very skeptical of them ever since. However, according to his argument, now that unemployment rate is a bit above 8%, we can possibly say they have worked for last four years. (Even though it does not confirm my position though, of course, according to his logic, huh, interesting.) GM has since survived anyway, so how can we possibly simply conclude they were failure. It could have been worse, and it is very obvious that things would be uglier if all the GM employees were laid off all of sudden.
It is stupid to believe that bailouts would save GM. However, it is also stupid to argue that bailouts were total failure now given that the goal of bailouts is truly not to save jobs in entirety or the receiving firms market share. They are given simply to give the recipients chance to slowly decline or adjust to changing environment. With bailout money, GM was supposed to shut down several unproductive plants or innovate itself to effectively compete with its domestic and international competitors, and it indeed did.
Apparently, GM is failing again, but does it really mean bailouts are destined to failure? I think it is just another problem. Probably, it is due to the fact that the world economy is sliding into another recession. GM was returning to a profitable business last year and fully paid the U.S. and Canadian governments back what it was supposed to until 2016, including both principal and interest.
Ignoring this fact, isn't it too sloppy to blame a doctor who has helped a person in hospital for four years when it turns out that person does not have a will to live or has gone wrong with everything in that time?

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