Friday, September 7, 2012

The ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions

The ECB will implement something called "outright monetary transactions."

http://www.ecb.int/i/index.html

Several people are skeptical of this. I think it is better than nothing but am skeptical, too, because of some fuzzy things, especially, sterilization part. It is very brief and not so detailed. Well, my macro textbooks only show the sterilization cases related to foreign exchanges market operations, eg., the central bank sells foreign exchanges for its currency to defend its currency and then buys its government's bonds to keep money stock constant; either, buys foreign exchanges with its currency and sells its government bonds to keep the money stock constant, too. Is there any other way of sterilization? I'm not sure. Maybe in this case, the ECB will sell its existing foreign exchanges to offset the expansionary monetary policy's disturbing effect on FX market?! Given the argument of several prominent economists such as Rogoff, Krugman, and even Friedman would support that the Eurozone needs some inflation, this policy seems contradictory to achieving internal balance because as a result, its money stock will stay the same. Some argue it is a compromise with Germany, whose central banker has resigned as a member of the executive right after the decision was made, arguing central bank debt financing would cause hyperinflation. That is, the ECB will sterilize to lower inflation pressure, but I am still not sure about this sterilization's impact if it means the ECB will sell the FXs it holds at the moment. It may keep money supply constant and reduce inflation pressure, which I don't believe it is necessary right now, but Euro will appreciate and it will harm competitiveness of the troubling countries. Another possibility is to sell German bonds, which are considered relatively safe assets. Still, it will keep monetary stock constant and offset stimulative effects of OMTs. In this sense, this policy seems just buying a little bit more time.

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